Dublin Central
Co. DublinDublin Central is a 4-seat north inner-city Dublin constituency taking in Phibsborough, Cabra and Dublin's north docklands. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has represented it since 2011 and topped the poll here again in 2024, alongside senior Fine Gael figure Paschal Donohoe.
Elected TDs (4)
2024 General Election — First Preferences
First-preference vote share by candidate. Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin) topped the poll with 19.5%. Bold candidates were elected — final seats are decided by PR-STV transfers, not first preferences alone.
Under PR-STV, surplus and elimination transfers decide the final seats, so a candidate can be elected from well below the quota — or miss out despite a strong first count. .
Dublin Central Beta: Next-Election Estimate
Beta — IllustrativeWe're testing a constituency-level projection model here first, before deciding whether to roll it out more widely. It combines the current national poll average with how each party over- or under-performed its national number in Dublin Central specifically in 2024 — a standard "uniform swing" technique, not a poll of this constituency (none exists).
Demographics & sentiment context — Dublin Central is a young, dense, high-private-rental inner-city constituency, which is exactly the profile where Sinn Féin and Social Democrats have tended to run ahead of their national numbers and Fine Gael behind them; that's the local skew this model captures, not something we've added on top of it. Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald, Dublin Central's sitting TD, currently has a net approval rating of -12 nationally — a sentiment signal worth weighing alongside the swing estimate above, though we don't yet fold it into the number itself.
Illustrative beta model, not a poll. Uniform-swing projections assume this constituency's 2024 relationship to the national result still holds — they can't capture local candidate changes, byelection effects, or constituency-specific campaigning. Sources: November 2024 general election results (this constituency and national), Red C / Ireland Thinks / Ipsos B&A polling average (last 3 polls).
Notable Past TDs
Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach 1997–2008, one of the longest-serving Dublin Central TDs.
Independent TD famous for the "Gregory Deal" — inner-city investment pledges won in exchange for backing Charles Haughey as Taoiseach in 1982.